uaua

Continental Airlines (NYSE: CAL) is seeking immunity from antitrust laws to work more closely with United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA) and others on international routes. And, since airlines operate in a state of seemingly perpetual turmoil, what's the harm? According to the Justice Department: plenty.

The airline sought broad immunity as part of an effort to join Star Alliance, which includes US Airways, Lufthansa (OTC: DLAKY), and Air Canada -- along with United. Continental believes that it needs to join Star Alliance in order to remain competitive, especially with airlines that have this type of immunity already.

Analyst upgrades:

• Baird upgraded Nike (NYSE: NKE) to Outperform from Neutral on expectations the company will benefit from the drop in the U.S. dollar and continued solid trends in athletic footwear. The firm raised its target on shares to $69 from $61.
  
• Deutsche Bank upgraded Temple-Inland (NYSE: TIN) to Buy from Hold as it believes the company is well positioned for cyclical turnaround in the Paper/Building Products space. The firm raised its target on shares to $19 from $11.
  
• Goldman upgraded Diageo (NYSE: DEO) to Buy from Neutral to reflect the current valuation and the company's exposure to emerging markets.
• Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) was upgraded to Hold from Sell at ING Group.
  
• Banco Santander (NYSE: STD) was lifted to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
  
• Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX) was upgraded at Oppenheimer to Outperform from Perform.

AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR) closed at $5.20. WTI Crude oil is recently up 1.57% to $67.16 according to Bloomberg. AMR July and November option implied volatility of 94 is below its 26-week average of 115, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

UAL Corp (NASDAQ: UAUA) closed at $5.29. UAUA July option implied volatility is at 102, December is at 111; below its 26-week average of 128, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), the parent of American Airlines, reported earnings for the first quarter on Wednesday. Revenues decreased 15%, and on an adjusted basis, the company lost $1.30 per share. According to this source, the market was calling for a loss of $1.62 per share. Since management was able to beat by such a wide margin, Wall Street decided to reward the stock by bidding it up over 20% (that's how the shares were trading at the time I started this article).

Airlines are still having a problem with the economy. Consumers aren't traveling as much, businesses are cutting back on sending executives across country. Indeed, I'm sure the summer months are going to see a lot of vacation plans being eliminated as people decide to stay closer to home.

According to the Associated Press, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) believes that world airlines will lose $4.7 billion this year. A loss of this size is more than world airlines saw following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The industry group attributes the losses to "the rapid deterioration of the global economic conditions."

This revision basically doubles the earlier forecast from December, causing the CEO of the IATA, Giovanni Bisignani, to note that "The state of the airline industry today is grim ... Demand has deteriorated much more rapidly with the economic slowdown than could have been anticipated even a few months ago." The IATA predicts revenues will drop by $62 billion to $467 billion, a 12% decline.

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Analyst upgrades:

• Citigroup upgraded Blue Nile (NASDAQ: NILE) shares to Buy from Hold on valuation following the recent sell-off as they believe weakening fundamentals have been factored into estimates and that Blue Nile should benefit from the recent softening of diamond prices. The firm raised its target price to $30 from $20.
  
• Baird upgraded AmSurg (NASDAQ: AMSG) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, potential upside from in-line results, good visibility, and FCF yield.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded DryShips (NASDAQ: DRYS) to Perform from Underperform on valuation following the recent weakness and believes the company is at least halfway through its $500M equity offering.
• UAL Corp (NASDAQ: UAUA) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Banc of America/Merrill.
  
• Mylan (NASDAQ: MYL) was upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays.
  
• Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) was lifted at Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold.

Singapore Airlines is one of the most successful carriers in the world. Because of the size of its home company, most of its flights are international. Several large U.S. airlines, including AMR (NYSE:AMR) and UAL (NASDAQ:UAUA) rely heavily on their overseas routes for large amounts of their profits. The yield-per-passenger is often better on flights going outside the U.S. than those within American borders.

Singapore Air is grounding a number of its planes as demand for international travel collapses. According to the AP, "The carrier said it will reduce capacity by 11 percent between April and March 2010 from the previous twelve months and decommission 17 aircraft after air cargo shipments fell 20 percent recently." Flying cargo is a separate profit center for a number of large airlines. As sales in that business drop, it compounds losses brought on by falling passenger travel.

Since Singapore Air's cuts are scheduled to go into 2010, the carrier clearly believes that there will not be a short-term rise in air travel.

U.S. carrier stocks have rebounded some from summer lows because of the drop in jet fuel prices. That should help their P&Ls. But if Singapore Air is a canary in the coal mine, the advantage of cheaper fuel may only help the industry so far.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 24/7 Wall St.

A consequence of a weakening airline sector is the pain it will cause plane-maker Boeing (NYSE: BA). With capacity tightening, the need for aircrafts is diminishing.

Imagine planes just sitting idle in the desert. That vision is becoming a reality.

Fortunately for investors, that vision will take time to play out. In the meantime, Boeing gets a free pass as they work through years of order backlog that built up during the last business cycle.

If you take a look at Boeing during the last few months, it is clear that investors have yet to catch on to a world of lower revenues going forward.

Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NYSE: AMD) reported dismal Q4 results due to lower demand.
• AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR) reported a bigger-than-expected Q4 loss, sending shares lower.
• Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. (NASDAQ: CHKP) earnings prospects led to an upgrade.
• eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) posted Q4 and full-year results with increased revenue due to a stronger dollar.
• Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) reported strong Q4 numbers that beat analysts' expectations.
• International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) reported better-than-expected Q4 and 2008 earnings.
• Lockheed Martin Corp. (NYSE: LMT) posted strong Q4 results but lowered its 2009 guidance.
• Northern Trust Corp. (NASDAQ: NTRS) shares surged after posting better-than-expected earnings.
• Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF) reported a huge loss due to write-downs and offered a bleak outlook.
• Societe Generale said that it expects to have broken even in the final quarter of 2008.
• Southwest Airlines Co. (NYSE: LUV) posted its second straight quarterly loss due to fuel hedging costs.
• UAL Corp. (NASDAQ: UAUA) reported a huge loss on the erosion in value of oil hedges as prices dropped.
• Usana Health Sciences Inc. (NASDAQ: USNA) posted record Q4 results despite one-time charges.

For more highlights from this week, see Apple, Microsoft, GE, Johnson & Johnson, Harley Davidson and others

Here's an investment point many experienced investors know, but others may not realize: hedging does not entirely eliminate risk.

In fact, massive hedging, even if prudently deployed, can lead to massive losses, if markets move against you.

Two cases in point: United Airlines and a Metro-New York City housing complex.

On Wednesday, United Airlines parent UAL Corp. (NYSE: UAUA) reported a Q4 loss of of $1.3 billion after it said it paid above-market rates for fuel after it incorrectly calculated fuel prices would rise.

Excluding costs related to fuel-hedge contracts, and other charges, UAL lost $555 million or $4.22 per share in Q4. Further, UAL said it would cut an additional 1,000 positions to reduce overhead costs. UAL's shares fell $1.59 to $10.03 on Wednesday at mid-day.

In other words, UAL's hedges backfired in a big way: to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars. Like so many companies and other large users of fuel, in early 2008 with oil prices soaring - - oil is a major component of jet fuel costs - - UAL attempted to control fuel costs with hedge contracts. However, the oil market collapsed in the second half of 2008, which resulted in the airline paying more money for fuel than it would had it let the corporate expense be vulnerable to market prices.

IBM (NYSE: IBM), the tech bellwether, reported quarterly results Tuesday after the close, surprising analyst with a 12% rise in profit. It also forecast 2009 earnings of at least $9.20 a share, compared to analyst expectations around $8.70 a share. Shares were up about 3.9% in premarket trading.

BHP Biliton (NYSE: BHP), the largest mining company in the world, said it would lay off 6% of its global workforce or 6,000 workers as a result of production cuts. Around 550 of them will be in the U.S. Shares declined nearly a percent in premarket trading.

Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC), the Swedish telecom equipment maker, announced a 31% profit drop and a 23% surge in sales. It also said it would cut 5,000 jobs in the attempt to save $1.2 billion in costs in 2009. Shares gained nearly 13.5% in premarket trading.

Many companies are due to report results on Wednesday: AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), UAL Corp. (NASDAQ: UAUA), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) and Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) and after the close, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY).

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) said it expects to earn $1.06 to $1.35 per share on sales from $9 billion to $10 billion in the first quarter, but analysts seem to expect more, estimating income of $1.39 per share on $9.74 billion in revenue, according to Thomson Reuters. Meanwhile, U.S. regulators are examining Apple's disclosures about Jobs' health problems to ensure investors weren't misled, according to Bloomberg sources. Shares gained about 1.3% in premarket trading.

Analyst upgrades:

• Calyon upgraded major network carriers based on falling oil prices and capacity cuts. The analyst is positive over the next 12 months but cautious short-term given the uncertain economy, and volatile markets and oil prices. AMR Corp (NYSE: AMR) and Delta Air (NYSE: DAL) were upgraded to Add from Neutral and UAL Corp (NASDAQ: UAUA) was raised to Neutral from Reduce.
• Ryanair (NASDAQ: RYAAY) was upgraded at Citigroup to Buy from Hold.
• Boardwalk Pipeline (NYSE: BWP) was raised to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank.
• Cowen lifted Biogen Idec (NASDAQ: BIIB) to Outperform from Neutral.
• JP Morgan upgraded Choice Hotels (NYSE: CHH) to Neutral from Underweight following the better-than-expected Q3 report.
• Oppenheimer upgraded shares of Integra LifeSciences (NASDAQ: IART) to Outperform from Perform on valuation, the company's minimal exposure to economic conditions, and expectations for margin improvement and a rebound in organic growth.

Analyst downgrades:

• Sherwin-Williams (NYSE: SHW) and AerCap Holdings (NYSE: AER) were downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JP Morgan.
• UBS downgraded Embarq (NYSE: EQ) to Neutral from Buy following the CenturyTel (NYSE: CTL) merger announcement.

U.S. stock futures once again were lower this morning, albeit more moderately, pointing to another lower start and possibly another down day following Wednesday's declines. Investors concern over the economy remained unabated, especially in light of recent and future corporate profits. This morning, weekly initial jobless claims will be released an hour ahead of the opening bell, and the numbers are expected to show yet another increase. Meanwhile, investors will continue to eye oil prices, which rebounded from a 16-month low to above $67, and foreclosures, which grew by 71% in the third quarter compared with the same period in 2007.

Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) drastically lowered profit and sales forecasts for the fiscal year Thursday, blaming weaker electronics sales and the stronger yen.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE: GS) is joining many other companies recently announcing layoffs as it also plans to cut about 3,260 jobs, representing about 10% of its total staff.

Amazon.com Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) reported a 48% climb in profit in the third quarter on strong sales of electronics, beating analyst estimates. But the company reduced its full-year profit outlook. AMZN shares traded down 14% in after-hours action.

Few actors understand the pluses and minuses of hedging better than traders . . . and airlines. In an ironic twist, some airlines could be financially hurt by falling oil prices. That's right: hurt by falling oil prices.

United Airlines (NYSE: UAUA) is one such airline. United said it could lose up to $294 million in Q3 if oil prices average $95 per barrel, marketwatch.com reported Wednesday. Oil rose $2.44 to $109.05 in mid-day Wednesday trading. United purchased fuel caps averaging around $111 per barrel this year and $118 for 2009. In other words, the caps mean United would be compelled to pay more for oil than the market price, due to the established contracts.

American Airlines (NYSE: AMR), and the slated-to-merge Northwest Airlines (NYSE: NWA) / Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) are other carriers that could be hurt by oil hedges, marketwatch.com reported.

Hedges, caps: An attempt to create fixed expenses

Stock Analyst C. Leonard Bauer told BloggingStocks Wednesday most airlines "merely seek to break even with their fuel hedges and caps, not profit from them."